IPL 2022: KKR knocked out, who will join GT in the final four? – All playoffs possibilities in 6 points | Cricket News – Times of India

With just four matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2022, there now remain 16 possible combinations of results.
TOI looked at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is sure to top the group stage, another is sure to finish either sole second or joint second and three teams are definitely out of the race for the playoffs, leaving five teams contending for the remaining two slots.
Here is how the teams stand as of Thursday morning:
1) MI, CSK and KKR are out of the playoffs race, GT are guaranteed to finish first
2) SRH’s and PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four spots on points remain at 12.5%. Either can do that by winning their last game against each other, if RCB lose their last match to GT and DC lose to MI. If that happens, the winner of the SRH-PBKS game will finish with 14 points and be joint fourth with DC and RCB
3) DC’s chances of making it to the top four slots on points remain at 75%. Their best case scenario is to win their last game against MI and RR and RCB losing their games against CSK and GT. That would put them tied for third on 16 points with RR and ensure qualification. Even if they lose their last game to MI, they can still finish joint fourth if GT beats RCB. They will then be in a tie for fourth with RCB and the winner of the SRH-PBKS game
4) RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots also remain at 75%. Their best case scenario is to win their last game and hope that RR and DC lose to CSK and MI respectively. That would leave them tied for third at 16 points with RR. Even if they lose their last game, they could finish joint fourth with DC and the winner of the SRH-PBKS game
5) RR is certain to finish second or third on the points table. Their best case scenario is winning against CSK. That would leave them in joint second spot on 18 points with LSG. But even if they lose to CSK, they can qualify by occupying sole third spot (if MI beat DC and GT beat RCB) or tie for third spot with RCB or DC or both. If it’s a three-way tie it would come down to net run rates
6) LSG are guaranteed second spot either solely (if CSK beats RR) or tied with RR (if RR beats CSK)
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 16 current possible combinations of results with four matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 16 possible result combinations, RCB finishes first to fourth on points in 12 combinations. That translates to a 75% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.

Come back for our updated predictions Friday (May 20) morning, which will take into account the results of Thursday’s match.

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